Updates from US and Europe

Posted: March 17, 2017 in Uncategorized

USA

The Federal Reserve finally hiked, but remain “dovish” for the future. The markets loved it and then calmed down.

It is all good, but several expert commented that the FED is risking inflating the bubble and falling behind the curve with future nasty surprises (faster rising of rates in the future).

While I do agree, I think the FED is still trying to understand what President Trump is doing and keeps its cards to its chest. Still dangerous.

President Trump had a full backlash on Obamacare and now also its Budget preview to be presented the next day seems almost “Dead on Arrival” (as some Republican said).

We are coming into the times when the President has to deal with Congress and usually the President has very strong powers in foreign policy, but quite weak one for internal affair. Dangerous weeks ahead as the rally is based on the idea that President Trump can deliver his promises.

Europe

The populists did not win in Netherlands (one of the most diverse and international European country)  and Europe is cheering.

A deeper analysis shows that the pattern from 2012 has not changed (the government won but lost 7 seats and the populists lost, but won 8).

In the last days also we had a very good performance of the establishment government in dealing with Turkey and quite bad performance of the populist Wilders with a confrontation with his brother.

Even more interesting, the ruling party had to move to the right to fight the populist wave.

Definitely lessons will be learned from this election for France, Germany and maybe Italy.

In essence in Europe the elites can take a breather and be happy that there is no Adolf Hitler* in sight.

*Note to be not misunderstood. We all know that Hitler was the father of all evil. But at the start of his political career he succeeded as he was a political genius. Evil, but genius – it took the entire world to stop him.

 

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