Mid year Budget Preview

Posted: December 15, 2016 in Uncategorized

On 19 December there will be the Mid year Budget update.

Deloitte in November estimated a AUD$24 billion worse than the May forecast .

Also the Government affirmed that they do not want to put in the forecast the better commodities pricing as it could turn around very fast.

The biggest risk is actually the agency Standard and Poor that could cut the AAA Australian rating  (Moodys is not so aggressive).

A downgrade could put pressure (up) in Government bond yields and specially regional government (NSW and Victoria), but subdued as both NSW and VIC are in surplus.

But the big pressure will be in bank funding (so on your loan) which has been already increasing while the 30+ days arrears in loan repayments is already at a 3 years high.

This would mean that Australian bank will need to rise more capital, so having a subdued share market growth also in 2017.

But the most important is this: a loss of AAA could be the real end of the real estate property boom.

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