Stock Market: the political cycle

Posted: December 2, 2016 in Uncategorized

This is a statistical analysis of what happens during an election period. Not a forecast, but looking at interesting patterns between 1952 and 2000.

  1. It seems it is more profitable investing in the 27 months before the election than the 21 month after the election
  2. There is an usual bottom of the marker at 1.87 years in the election cycle (just before the mid term Congressional election
  3. Bear markets usually happen in the first two year of the electoral cycle
  4. Democrats are usually better than Republican for the stock market (contrary to opinion, but US entered in many more wars with Democrats than Republican)
  5. The third year is usually the best year
  6.  Usually the first 2 month behaves in reverse than the first two years (so President elected, market down and then up (like with President Obama) or President elected, market up and then down

The reality is that much depends on in which state the economy was when the new President took over and how he did maintain  its promises.

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