Let the French Hunger (Election) Game begin

Posted: November 28, 2016 in Uncategorized

In France, the center right has elected Francois Fillon has candidate.

As the Left is in complete disarray, the only choice is Center Right and Right.

Most probably the French election will be Fillon versus Marine Le Pen (Front National).

In one way, this is the hardest candidate for Front National (anti European – Pro Frexit) as there are a lot of commonality between the two candidates (Anti Muslim, Pro Russia, family and regional oriented).

In a different way,  Monsieur Fillon is the easiest candidate. He is a Margaret Thatcher follower against unions and pro decreasing the public service, pro ultra liberalism and industry, often critiqued to be anti feminism and pro Europe.

If played well, this could be the dream opponent for Marine – it could sway the Left to support Marine as at least she is populist (and over 500,000 French public servant will not like the idea of losing their jobs).

In the worst case scenario the Left will abstain from voting as they hate Fillon, in the best case some Left supporters will support Le Pen.

My personal view that this outcome is Pro Front National due to the idiosyncrasy of the French electoral system.

It is a two stage election, where, in the second stage, the main parties coalesce against the outsider (Front National). Fillon will not appeal to the Left at all.

One certain winner of all this is Putin – as both candidates have a pro-Russia policy.

And as the Hunger Games say…really may the fortune be with you. If Marine Le Pen gets elected everything will change.

Brexit, Trump and Frexit.

 

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