The day before the election

Posted: November 8, 2016 in Uncategorized

Finally…it feels almost like having a baby!

last considerations.

The electoral college map (270 votes to  win) indicates Clinton 203 versus Trump 169 – so technically Hillary has an advantage of 39 votes.

There are 9 states with polls within the “Brexit error” range and Florida is the one to watch as it has 29 Electoral Votes.

The popular vote is more of toss up…so we can easily find in a situation Trump popular vote and Clinton Electoral Vote similar to Al Gore vs Bush Jr.

But I promise you Trump will not accept this as easily as Al Gore.

So if Clinton wins we will have a rally for 1 or 2 days to approach SP500  2,200 (Gold 1,210) and if Trump wins we will see immediately SP500 to 2,000 and then probably 1,920 (Gold 1,400 and probably 1,500).

Then things will revert to normality focusing on low growth, impending Italian referendum etc – the usual ( – or rally and then slight return in the middle ground, for now or  crash, then rally).

As statistics goes there is no relevance of sort between the 1 or 2 days after the election and the market direction over the following year.

This dismal campaign set up the stage for ugly battles in Congress and so any winner will do much less than he promised.


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