400AD the fall of Rome – 2020 the fall of Europe

Posted: September 8, 2016 in Uncategorized

400 Annus Domini – Rome is swamped by hordes migrant and the empire falls.

2016 Annus Domini – Europe is swamped by migrants and ????

Between AD 376-476 circa 2 to 5 millions immigrants came to the Roman Empire (and mainly with the consensus of Rome) circa 5% of the estimated population. It was not an even invasion. It started with the Goth in 376 (0.25% of the population)

In Europe 3 million immigrant recently arrived (0.6% of the population) and circa 6.6% of the European population is actually non European (but data does not distinguish say US citizen from Egypt.

In ancient time most German were already “Romanized” so the there were not big cultural differences (there were with other groups like the Goths).

Climate changes and economic reason were the biggest reasons for the migrations – apart a few from Syria…most of the current wave of European migration is motivated by economics.

The Germans were quite well integrated with the Roman Empire and became the most reliable font of soldiers (not in Europe, but the US Army has already 1/6th of Mexican descent).

The immigrants were generally not hostile…they just wanted to “join the party”. There were proxy wars, ambushes from Germanic tribes a bit like Iraq/Syria), but generally when Rome decided to go “all in” the enemies disappeared…like now with the US Army.

Immigrants were prone to crime – but only when crime became organised in large bands that knew how the Roman fought they started to have serious victories against the Romans. And still the victories came mostly when various Roman would – be emperors where fighting each other.

And that is where Immigration and Europe disintegration (like Brexit) present some scary similarities.  There is no fighting Рbut where the politicians should pull together to find a solution they just focus on their own turf without addressing the big picture.

Unfortunately in democracy there is no solution to this problem = specially with the low level of politicians. Europe expanded too fast and with too little integration to answer such a challenge. It would be better to have 2 or 3 European zones that are more similar and could work together…well again the Roman Empire did split. Just too late to make a difference. Will it happen again with a North Europe democracy.

The signs are there and smart politicians are not. I would love to be more optimistic

 

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