South China Sea battle lines

Posted: August 11, 2016 in Uncategorized

China, not surprisingly, is finally showing its intentions with  the new military installations on the Woody Islands. Missile batteries have been installed  and a few J-11 jet fighters have been spotted.

It is also building aircraft carriers with electro magnetic catapult to assert its dominance on the South China Seas.

It is also going in an unconventional war mode using its large fishing fleet as a sort of sea-militia in order to collect information and harass the enemy lines, without provoking full accidents (hence the several fishing boats captured by Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam)

Vietnam, in response, has move missile rocket launcher to close by islands in  order to be able to destroy the runways. Plus the US has lifted its decade long arm sale embargo.

Taiwan recently deployed new US built surface to air missiles.

Japan is looking to ditch the article 9 from its Constitution and become again the Rising Sun Empire (to counter the numeric superiority of China, Japan will probably be the first country to have quite a robotic army – they are the most advanced in robotics and Toyota just bought from Google Boston Dynamics – the maker of potential war robots (Big Dog, Cheetah – the most famous).

Indonesia, South Korea and Philippines are increasing their presence.

Even Australia that has to balance between the best supporter and the best client is starting to be worried for real.

And US is increasing its presence

A sea air battle is the most complex environment in the world and only the US and the British navy (and partially the Japanese due the cross training with the US) has real expertise in real war scenarios.

So, is it a war probable? Not really. An accident, Yes. Can accidents lead to war? Yes and No. There are various accidents that did not lead to war – but depends on the leaders inner ambition – as accidents can be played up or down by the media.

If the economic situation in a country is particularly bad, often accidents lead to war as a way to distract the masses.

Is it China really bad? Depends where you look.

On the above premises yes.

If you look on the Chinese side, no. It is just a response to the US using its allies (Pacific countries, NATO, Turkey/Saudi)  to encircle the great enemies (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) that threaten the American Empire.

As the great Italian Comedian Pirandello said “Right you are, if you think so”.

 

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