Visionary thinking

Posted: May 11, 2016 in Uncategorized

Last week I was in Sydney having lunch with Alex Pollack, CEO of Loftus Peak – a manager

specialist in listed disruptive business model.

It is interesting to see what are the ramification of technological change.

We were discussing the advent of the autonomous electric cars in the next 20 years.

The consequences are mind boggling!

The car has always been thought as private mean of transport due to the personal driving and insurance issues. In reality for 50% of the time your car is just …doing nothing.

Fast forward, in 2035 the car could be just a commodity, while you just rent for the weekend the special car – be it a Ferrari or a Toyota Hilux if you go camping.

This would mean that there would be circa 50% less cars in the developed countries as people do not need anymore the car for the commute (if still there will be a commute as internet will allow many people to work remotely).

The automobile industry would suffer a lot as there are lower volumes.

In effect it will happen to what already happened to the newspaper/media like Fairfax.

But also commodities as there will be less need of steel and oil (between the electric cars and the less number of cars).

There will be consequences also for the US Dollar. The US Dollar as reserve currency status depends a lot on the petrodollar concept initiated in the 1970s between the US and Saudi Arabia and already fading.

Practically there will be consequences everywhere and the highlights above are just the point of an iceberg.

As changes goes, this trend will be subtle…until explode. And when it explodes if you are in the wrong sector or listed shares the consequences will be terrible.

These changes are everywhere. Changes are not bad as there are numerous solid opportunities (well not too many in Australia)- but almost in a Darwinian way, who will not foresee and adapt…will be extinct (or at least the investor portfolio)

 

 

 

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