US Employment data and the Fed

Posted: April 14, 2016 in market research, Uncategorized

Employment in the US is on the rise with, on average, 225,000 new jobs since January 2015 (Unemployment March 2016, 5%).

The figure that the FED looks at in reality is the U6 (people that would like a job, but struggling to find). This number always has been higher (the top has been 17.1% vs a top headline figure of 9.8%). Only in this last two year the U6 improved (now at 9.8%). It reached normality.

The real long term unemployed peaked at 46% and now is at 28% (still a bit above normal 20-25%).

Unemployment claims are the lowest in 16 years(!)

This led in the first quarter to a wage growth 2.5%, the largest increase post Global Financial Crisis.

The Federal Reserve will have to increase interest rates around June July, no matter what.

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