Markets: beware of April’s fools!

Posted: April 4, 2016 in Uncategorized

The market is in a very dangerous situation.

After the mini crash of January and February the market rallied hard – but there are too many things amiss to make it last.

Just a few

  • Buybacks are the only force driving the market high (guess what…they were suspended in January). If they keep ongoing like this…it will exceed the 2007 peak
  • Capex spend grew 1% (dividend and buyback by 7% YoY)
  • Volatility at historical lows (usually a condition for sharp reversal)
  • US Treasuries are getting hard to sell (very strangely…or not. The biggest buyer, China, went away)
  • Negative EPS guidance at 10 years record
  • Brexit referendum June 23
  • China is still in the doldrums
  • There is political instability in Portugal and Spain – and a wikileak intercepted call indicates that the IMF wants re ignite a Greece problem in July (not a joke there is even a transcript!)
  • The oil short covering rally is unwinding
  • Migrant crisis re igniting as the European summer is re starting

and much more…so BEWARE



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