A most important Oil Rally

Posted: March 8, 2016 in Uncategorized

Well, time to explain what is happening.

As this rally is driven by oil rally (see the correlation) – you really need to understand what is happening.

The fundamentals on oil have not changed. So what changed?

First of all  the move has been initiated by the closure of a Triple short Exchange Traded that had to buy several millions Oil calls at market. This triggered the CTA (Commodity Trader Advisers) to cover their shorts.

Now the big part of the rally has officially ended (the Fed does not want another bubble and Fisher (one of the secondary Fed Presidents) told the media that inflation is poking out….dampening expectation.

The last time something similar happened was the G20 2008 Massive rally to January and a crash in March 2009 that was the bottom of the crisis.

We could be well in December /January as situation.

But on the positive side consultants of PIRA (the world largest oil negotiators) are saying that OPEC and non OPEC players are kind of agreeing that USD50 is a good price.

So apart short terms movements that is were oil will be by, say, September

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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