Beyond all fears (and not the markets)

Posted: February 11, 2016 in Uncategorized

John Kerry (US Secretary of State) is having quite a few meetings with Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister.

The actual content is top secret, but 2 things are clearly in sight.

– a final settlement on Ukraine since the Ukraine (pro Europe) government is on the verge of collapse under the weight of corruption and bribery scandals.

– a more important settlement on Syria.

The second is really important. There is a clear push from Turkey and Saudi Arabia to intervene in Syria in order to create a buffer zone.
The US does not want it as Syria already declared that it  would consider it an invasion.
The big worry of the US is that the move would put Turkish and Saudi warplanes clearly in the target zone of the very sophisticated Russian anti air denial system. And being Turkey a NATO member an engagement in such a context could be easily morph in a world war 3 scenario.

Unfortunately in history there is a stark reminder. After the Great Depression of 1929 the Fed decided to rise the rates in 1937 triggering another crash and contributing to the start of of the second world war (you need a mad man as Hitler to start…but we have a few. Well until 1933 Hitler was actually quite admired from a lot of person’s even in the UK and USA (his party received a lot of financial support from the Ford Corporation for example)

And war is one “politically easy way out” from an economic crisis.

So let’s hope that John Kerry and the USA will save the world.

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