Battle for Aleppo: Syria’s endgame

Posted: February 8, 2016 in Uncategorized

The battle for Aleppo is technically the endgame of the Syrian war.

Practically you have Russia/Syria/Iran (and Hezbollah)/ Iraq forces against the rebels supported by Turkey, the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia and the US.

The Geneve talk are in disarray (a bit like the Vietcong never wanted really negotiate) as if Aleppo falls…there is no more opposition (in effect there is still opposition..but it will be more a clean up operation than a war).

The dire state of affair for the opposition is actually made clear by the political chatter from Saudi and Turkey of being prepared for a ground invasion.

But as bluntly as John Kerry (US Secretary of State) put it…this would be tantamount to go to war against Russia. Russia is not anymore the USSR, but still an extremely powerful enemy.

Once Aleppo falls, the opposition (and the 5 year dream of Turkey and Saudi Arabia) is finished as it cuts the supply lines from Turkey.

Soon after they will “clean up” Is and Syria will be back to reconstruct phase.

The US clearly stated that it is not interested in a war on a ground or versus Russia (that just deployed the last generation Su34 Gen 4++ jet fighter.

And if Turkey and Saudi decide to go in anyway, it is a Middle East War complete (and Iranian are superior). It is very improbable (and quite suicidal for turkey and Saudi Arabia).

Now you understand why Putin let the SU24 be shot down.

Endgame.

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