US earning estimates, recession or not?

Posted: January 18, 2016 in Uncategorized

US Earnings in Q4 2015 year on year are estimated in -5.7%.

The reality will be probably come out approximately at -5% (it is a bit too complicated to explain here why…but it is about how they do the maths for these calculations)

Are we heading towards a recession? From the estimates it looks like NOT.

The last 2 quarter had to be brutal as the US companies felt the consequences (year of year) of the USD strength and low oil price.

Current estimates for the Q1 2016 are still negative, but much better (between -0.6% and -0.9%).

What is interesting thou is that when we turn to the bad quarters of 2015…the estimates turn positive (+3.1% and +7%).

So if the estimates are correct this would be a slowdown – not a back to recession scenario.


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