Well I wrote of a more volatile 2016 and “do not index” this year…but the start has been worst than expected.
And the there is a old adage in Wall Street (about which I was talking yesterday) which is scary ….so goes January so goes the year.
Also some stock market specialist are quite fixated on the number 7 (this is the 7 year of the post GFC rally). Silly thing, I know…until you see the track record of those gurus.
Yesterday fall has all the hallmarks of a panic attack – Stock Markets collapsing, AUD falling and gold rising.
Tomorrow (and next week) is very important …the SP 500 is defending the all important 2,000 level.
A breach of it would signal a confirmation of the 1,820 target*.
*The last low 1,867 has the characteristics of false low as per my December post. I was quite surprised that was not breached to get a confirmation low in the 1820/1840 area.
Apart China, the data for the US also do not look good.
There is the lowest EPS guidance for US Consumer Discretionary in the last five years.
US Manufacturing (December) looks like contracted the most since 2009.
So it is not the end of the world…but this is a seriously scary year.
investorpolitico 