ASX200 : Flat or negative (-5% to +3%) – banks and materials under pressure
SP500 Slightly up (0/5%)
AUD 0.68/0.70 US cents (later i the year, now there is a USD weakness)
Bond – Stable /positive (only 2 Fed hikes)
RBA no move for most of the year, maybe up towards the end
Oil: Once a low is in (USD25/34) a counter rally to USD60
Iron Ore: USD 40 (stable)
Gold: once a low is in around $950/$1,000 a rally to $1,300/1,400
China to continue its slow “rotation to consumer economy path.
Yuan to 7.5 (depreciation towards dollar of about 15%)
Preferred markets: Japan, selectively Europe, Vietnam, selectively South America
Space to watch for potential crisis.
– Turkey/Russia/Iran
– High Yield Bond (energy, US auto loans)
-Italian banking crisis
-terrorist attacks
-China/ Emerging Markets (currencies)
Merry Xmas!
investorpolitico 