2016 prediction in under a minute

Posted: December 23, 2015 in 2016, stock market, Uncategorized

ASX200 : Flat or negative (-5% to +3%) – banks and materials under pressure

SP500 Slightly up (0/5%)

AUD 0.68/0.70 US cents (later i the year, now there is a USD weakness)

Bond – Stable /positive (only 2 Fed hikes)

RBA no move for most of the year, maybe up towards the end

Oil: Once a low is in (USD25/34) a counter  rally to USD60

Iron Ore: USD 40 (stable)

Gold: once a low is in around $950/$1,000 a rally to $1,300/1,400

China to continue its slow “rotation to consumer economy path.

Yuan to 7.5 (depreciation towards dollar of about 15%)

Preferred markets: Japan, selectively Europe, Vietnam, selectively South America

Space to watch for potential crisis.

– Turkey/Russia/Iran

– High Yield Bond (energy, US auto loans)

-Italian banking crisis

-terrorist attacks

-China/ Emerging Markets (currencies)

Merry Xmas!

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