Russia ups the ante versus Turkey (update)

Posted: December 18, 2015 in Uncategorized

In the address to the nation President Putin made it clear that the issues with Turkey will not go away anytime soon (unless there is a full apology from Turkey.

It established a de facto no fly zone for Turkish warplanes over Syria declaring that any airplane will be downed via their new S 400 systems (so efficient that even the Americans ordered to stop flights near Turkey not to be mistaken).

Plus other sanction are under consideration (energy is the only real sanction that would hurt Turkey for real…but would also cripple Russian revenues.

Turkey meanwhile is relying more and more on US and NATO (the latter quite in an uncomfortable position).

The only act against Russia that Turkey could do is the closure of the Dardanelles – but that would be a clear Casus Belli (Turkey can close the straight only in case of war).

By the way the US apparently in 2015 ran at least 14 wargames …all scenarios were favorable to NATO and end up with the Russian victory.

Why?

  • Mainly the Russian doctrine implies a  quite early use of tactical nuclear device which will compel NATOto sue for peace.
  • It is unclear what the reactions would be if say Turkey got attacked. A few scenarios indicate that at least Italy, Spain and France would not intervene and NATO has a consensus agreement principle (so there is no voting, but all nations have to consent).

 

If you do not believe me all nuclear nations are updating their nuclear arsenal (specially US, Russia, China and UK), so much so that the US sent an updated type of nuclear tactical smart bomb to Germany just in November 15.

Update

Turkey is currently ethnically cleansing Southern Turkey from the PKK (Kurdish people and fighters – The UN says that over 170 Kurdish civilians and 150 Kurdish fighters have been killed along with 150 Turkish troops).

The PKK has a long and lasting relationship with Russia as it was already used by the Soviets against Turkey in the Cold War.

It does not take a great imagination that the PKK – under pressure – would turn to an old friend for support. And if you are old enough to remember the “Years of lead” (so called due to the amount of spent cartridges in terrorist attacks)  the 1970s (European Soviet sponsored terrorism) you should know that the prospect is quite scary.

 

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