The latest events in all their brutality will lead to an unforeseen consequence …the end of IS as a cohesive fighting force.
Why?
First of all between air strikes and media campaign the oil revenues have been practically halted. Russia already destroyed over 1500 oil trucks and the US was forced to join.
The exposure of the connection Turkey/IS makes Turkey really isolated and part of the European Union negotiations will include a distancing between IS/Turkey connection. As a good proxy IS is not anymore needed by Turkey and now it is more of a burden. There will be more terror attacks in Turkey as a revenge.
Turkish warplanes have been banned from Syria with the deployment of S400 Russian anti aircraft system. They were constantly bombing the YPG (Kurdiah forces) which are some of the best anti IS fighters and protecting the oil/ammo trucks (real reason of the SU24M downing).
There are backchannels open by Russia to agree in a cooperation between YPG and Syrian Government forces.
There are backchannels opened by France to include Syrian Government forces in the front against IS.
This combination will bring surprising effects in the next few months.
investorpolitico 