A Turkey geopolitical game

Posted: November 30, 2015 in Uncategorized

Due to Thanksgiving..we should talk about turkey (funny but not so funny).

In 2013 I wrote that the strategic retreat from the middle east from the US will bring to us the raise of the old empires…Iran and Turkey. The Saudi are another element but without a serious military power and now they are flat in the Yemen quagmire reminiscent of Afghanistan and Vietnam.

Turkey play to raise as new Ottoman Empire is multiple.

1. Substituting Assad with a pro Turkey government (hence the issues with Russia).
2. Use the migrant crisis to get money from the EU and ultimately be part of the European Union( even as not really democratic country and first Muslim majority country in Europe).
3. Become a regional superpower.

Erodogan play is card ruthlessly well up to this point.

It sent a clear message to Russia do not mess with us as we are US backed and successfully blackmailed Europe.

Now the next phase it would be the good guy pacifing Russia and be the saviour of Europe.

He is already trying to stem the flow of migrants and he suspended the flight over Syria just in case the Russian decide to retaliate.

This is a very delicate phase as Putin naturally is aware of this and really piss off.

Putin finds himself at odds. In order to hit economically Turkey seriously he should cut the energy supply (60%), but in this case Russia would lose precious billions of dollars. Also, in retaliation, Turkey could close the Dardanelles which would be a declaration of war with Russia.

Nobody wants a war with Russia. Apart that even in this decreased status the Russian army will be able to inflict substantial losses to NATO.

NATO as it is more technically advanced will probably win, but once in crisis Russia would use a nuke in Turkey and everything would be stalled (hopefully).

For those who do not believe me the top Russian general  declared in 2014 that it is a normal procedure for the Russian Army to deploy tactical nuclear device even without central authority in case Russia gets under attack (strategic nukes are for Putin only and he just updates 2 subs with 16 nuclear strategic missile each containing 10 independent nuclear bombs…just to be clear).

So a NATO Russia confrontation is highly unlikely.

But Putin will play other cards like help the current divisions in Europe to fracture it.(France and Greece are already more aligned with Russia than Germany/US).

On top of all this the US is entering its Presidential election year where get President is kind of a lame duck.

Interesting times


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