What happens on average when the Fed start rising rates?
Usually initially the US market performs well (not extremely good but positive), but nn US markets outperform after a shaky start.
The US dollar decreases and treasury yields rise.
The classic defensive sectors lose out to cyclical.
Emerging market have no consistent pattern and commodities rise (funny apart the talk gold does not react badly).
Usual best sectors are tech, financials and healthcare (all sectors that in this case already ran a lot)
We do not know what will be happening this time.
Main differences
Commodities are in a four and credit spreads are widening not contracting.
So history has no good indicators this time as situation is too different.
In my opinion there could be a wobble and a counterrally…but all eyes will be then in understanding the pace…so in reality not much will happen
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