Russia in the Syrian battlespace

Posted: September 23, 2015 in Uncategorized

Russia entered the Syrian battlespace with a splash. It is the only outside power that has committed serious firepower to Syria. And it is showing as yesterday they already killed 38 ISIS fighters.

But why they did it?

It is a master stroke again as it allows Russia to re enter the Middle East for the first time after the fall of the USSR and also opens negotiations channels with various frenemies and enemies. It also helps carving an Alawite (Assad) enclave and securing a negotiating position in case Syria gets settled and divided.

US – US needs to to Russia as its planes are operating in Syria and Russian anti air defence are formidable. Definitely part of negotiation will involve a request to decrease US involvement in Ukraine.

Israel. Again Israeli military advisers are everywhere in Ukraine. Israel and Russia are not friends, but exchange frequent favours. Definitely now Israel cannot think a “do it alone” mission to take the Iranian nuclear facilities, even if they wanted to.

Turkey. Turkey will be upset as their strategy of a Sunni pro Turkey government has been shattered. This is a retaliation to their blocking the Southstrem Russian pipeline and some issues with the pro Moscow Azerbajan (another area with a lot of gas pipelines and subject to various interest and always in semi state of conflict).

The Gulf states, which have warplanes operating in the area, also will have to negotiate – probably on oil pricing.

I did not mention Egypt and Iran as they already have outstanding collaboration with Russia.

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