The world (ex US and Australia) in 1 minute while I was away..

Posted: September 16, 2015 in Uncategorized

Asia

China (Hong Kong) continues its bouncy landing. It is a crash in a multi year rally. The economy is still going and it needs to slow down and transform. There is no transformation without pain, but the path is still there. Reforms are coming in fast (the last is a very important change in the State Enterprise management).

India again is a multi year bull market. There has been a bit  of disappointment as the reforms did not came that quickly, but again the path is clear.

Japan keeps its resurgence. It looks like it finally got out of deflation and investors are changing their mind. Also there are some corporate changes (more dividend/buybacks) which will spur a renaissance.

The rest of Asia is pretty much in not such a nice space (except Philippines).

South America

Brasil is another big commodities casualty. Mexico is the only shining star as it is more and more attached to the US train.

Middle East

The Saudi war in Yemen is not going to plan. Apart the Western media headlines it looks more and more like a Saudi Afghanistan. It is not really surprising as the Houthis had wars going on for the last 20 years.  The biggest issue is not a Houthi victory, but the cost of war for the Saudis. Already they had to tap the international debt market and cut subsidies to the general population.

Syria. The various player are building up their positions in order to take part of the sharing of the spoils of war. In my humble opinion that is the reason of the Russian build up. A position of strength dictate that they will have to be involved in the settlement. Also the push for settlement comes from Europe as part of the immigration crisis.

Iran and US are re aligning. It will take time and Israeli and Saudi are not happy about it.

Turkey is trying to negotiate various forces without imploding.

Europe

Economically is improving, but here we have another crisis with immigration. Immigration is not bad per se (the US was built on immigration), but the issue is that usually the Muslim immigrants do not want to integrate.

It just exposes another fault in the European dream. And Sunday there are the new Greek election (probably a more divided parliament will be the outcome

Also the Ukrainian war is looking as settling down.

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