Finally the Iranian deal has been sealed.
It is really a major event after over 30 years hostility.
What does it mean.
The softening of sanctions will be slow and even if there is a lot of buzz around energy – the reality is that the infrastructure will have to be renovated and renewed – so oil will not flow so fast and so easy.
Also we need to see who will win the US Presidential race in 2016. A lot of Republicans are quite hostile to this deal.
So apart the initial euphoria of new deals and new oil…there will be not much real – just expectations.
Geopolitics
This is more complicated and outright scary.
There is a deep mistrust between Sunni/Shia and naturally Jews.
Definitely Israel do not trust Iran and the Saudi, at least in reality, are the same.
A free Iran for them is a menace as it can get money to finance its army (the most formidable of the Middle East with Israel) and a clear and present danger.
So this easily will start a new arm race in the Middle East without excluding nuclear capacity (the Saudi just signed a civilian nuclear plant building with Russia).
Also there will be quite a few changing alliances (eg Saudi-Israel) to counteract the withdrawal of the US as the main player.
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