Greece, Europe, China and market crash

Posted: June 30, 2015 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

What a day crash!

Good news, I checked the various markets and there is no sign of contagion “Lehman Brother” style.

This means that, at this stage, we are in for a serious bout of volatility, but not a 2008 style event.

Italian and Spanish market are off, but with no sign of crisis.

This is the hard part of the negotiations. PM Tsiparas knows that PM Merkel needs Greece in the Euro to keep the Euro weak (over 50% of German GDP is exports) and he is gambling the entire country on this.

What happens will depend a lot from Sunday referendum.

People say that Greece is little as Lehman Brothers was. A big difference is that Lehman Brothers debt was held by the private (whereas  now Greece debt is the EU or IMF) and Lehman Brothers was managing a great part of the world derivative market.

More to the point  in the US the Plunge Protection Team is at work, Draghi is thinking to increase the European QE (and more QE means devaluing the Euro – which would eliminate the problem of a stronger Euro provoked by a Greek exit….smart eh?).

Also China is now thinking QE.

At the end this could really the final bottom, for the mother of all rally, also for gold.

And on top of it….with this crisis the Fed first rate hike is likely to be pushed further out.

The jury is not yet out….but at this moment in time it seems we will have just a set back

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