Yemen, another frozen conflict

Posted: June 23, 2015 in Uncategorized

The peace talks concluded with no solution (actually it finished with a fist fight).

On the ground there is actually no solution. After the second phase in which Saudi Arabia coalition seemed to win – now everything is “incremental”.

Actually the Houthi mounted quite a few cross border (into Saudi Arabia) attacks and even briefly seized a Saudi military base (it is not clear if they have been repelled).

Personally it was clear this “end” as the Houthis have 20 years (at least) of experience in fighting various enemy.

The ground invasion of Yemen would be a disaster. The Houthis are similar to the Taliban as fighters and terrain knowledge and the Saudis are not as well prepared as the US Army.

So another frozen conflict.

The big issue is that the Saudis were, for some reason unfathomable to me, convinced in a quick win campaign. The continuation of this war will put strain on the kingdom of Saud as they already have a few issue to contend to: the succession from old generation to the new generation, the lower oil revenues, the change of US strategies and the Islamic State infiltration attempts.

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