The negotiation are really tight.
The bigger issue is that the market is starting not believing the words.
The USD/Euro chart does not lie, nor bond
The 5 year Greek CDS imply an 86% chance of default.
It is not that I turned negative on a solution – but this is a critical moment.
Greece does not have 306 million pay (5 June) as the latest payment done in May was borrowed from the emergency cash fund that every nation has as a reserve at the IMF (and have to be returned within a month).
Also there is an Euro 918 million by the end of June and a similar amount in July.
I still think that the strategic need will prevail…..but we are down to the wire and Graccident can happen
investorpolitico 