French regional election

Posted: March 24, 2015 in Uncategorized

I always follow closely French politics as a Front National win in 2017 could really spill real issues for the European Union as its leader, Marie Le Pen, is anti Europe.

While in previous election it looked like 2017 would be an easy win for Marie Le Pen – these elections shows that it will be not so easy.

The return of pro-Europe Sarkozy brought a victory to the center right UMP – while Front National came second…stalling its dramatic advance.

There is still a run off to be held end of March and there is quite a bit of bickering within the UMP (as in the run off they need the support the center left party of Hollande….that could bring also damage).

Anyway….not such an easy win in 2017.

Some data to show how quickly things can change in France

Presidential election Year 2007  Socialist Party (Hollande)   25.9% – UMP (Sarkozy) 31.2% – Front National (Le Pen) 10.4%

European Election year 2014 Socialist Party (Hollande)   13.4% – UMP (Sarkozy) 20.9% – Front National (Le Pen) 24.9%

Local Election year 2015 Socialist Party (Hollande)   21.85% – UMP alliance  (Sarkozy) 29.4% – Front National (Le Pen) 25.19%

What is really hindering Front National is the “missing” of the local regional network (before this they never performed well in the local election (local election 2008, Front national 4.8%).

Le Pen will need to work hard to increase its electoral base before 2017 to win. But also if they do not – the anti Europe force is now mainstream and cannot be ignored.

Curiosity: now in France every election candidate has to be a “binome” (two persons team, a man and a woman) – this is an advantage for Le Pen as every “win” will get her two advocates.

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