Oil and geopolitical risk

Posted: January 21, 2015 in Uncategorized

A funny consideration: oil at this price practically has an implicit zero geopolitical risk.

As you well know the world as we know is pretty far from a zero political risk.

Russia and Ukraine are still fighting.

Libya is practically in a state of anarchy.

Syria issue are not solved (and Israel seems to be more and more involved, behind the scenes)

Islamic State is still there (if it is contained or not, that depends on the media news)

North Africa has plenty of hot spots.

There are terror alerts everywhere.

The implication is that if a geopolitical stress event would happen, oil could sharply rise USD20.

Update 23 January.

King Abdullah of Saudi died and oil jumped 2% as now the policy of OPEC is not anymore clear (it is not really like this as the King was already sick and not really a policy maker…but it stands to show that even a predictable (the King was in the 90s and seriously ill)  event can cause serious jumps in the oil pricing

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