Russia, preparing for the long cold war

Posted: December 3, 2014 in Uncategorized

Well, definitely pretty bad with oil crash, sanctions.

But they do not yield and they will not yield.

Unfortunately for the West, our politicians seems not to understand the Russians way of thinking.

They think the Soviet Union was bad and President Putin and a great number of Russians think that the demise of the USSR was the worst think ever happened.

They saw (or think) that sanctions and the crash in oil in the 80s (sound familiar? yes it is!) brought the collapse of the USSR – from the Second (or equal first) power of the world to a semi  West-vassal third world country and 10 years (the 1990s) of ruin.

They survived (still blessing him, for the majority) Stalin, they survived a 2 year siege of Leningrad (1.5 million man), Stalingrad and lost over a 1 million soldier in Ukraine (and yes if it was not for the Soviets the D-Day would not have happened)

Would you like that? No.

Do Russians show resilience: Yes, more than American and European combined.

President Putin is trying to diversify the economy and open new friendships (China, Turkey, Egypt, but also opening up to North and South Korea, Vietnam, Venezuela, Chile, Brazil) – but it will take time.

In Ukraine, they are consolidating the eastern position with enough army to deter any new Ukrainian Army offensive. They are using the carrot and the stick with Georgia. And being much more assertive with NATO (just yesterday there was a close encounter in international space between a MIG 31 and an F16).

So a lot depends if Russia can change to a new model before the Russian reserves will provoke a systemic crisis.

And I hope they succeed as for Russians and Putin defeat is not an option. If Russia goes down it will be a war – maybe (hopefully) very limited as “real war”, but very real as cyber/financial war.

Some people wish for a coup that takes President Putin away. If you studied Russia you know you should know to be careful for what you wish for – Putin could look an amiable pacifist compared to his successor.,

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