Middle East 2015: Battle for Cairo, Egypt

Posted: December 3, 2014 in Uncategorized

In the Middle East, apart the continuation  of the “usual” issues and the geopolitical stress caused by the low oil prices (less revenues to finance the various legitimate armies against the terrorist) the big issue is Egypt.

Egypt is battling a constant lack of revenues and it is even financed by the Gulf states as a Egypt fall would be a nightmare for the Saudis.

Luckily Egypt has a very strong and well prepared army, plus a lot of strange interested friends (from the US, to Russia – from Israel to Saudi Arabia) – all interested in its stability.

It’s biggest threat are two;

A Sinai’s based terror organization Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (new IS affiliated) that is making a full on bombing campaign (planted 21 bombs just last month, 14 exploded) in Sinai and plans to expand operations in the Egypt core, maintaining a high media profile for recruitment purposes.

The threat is yet minimal, but increasing.

The other issue is Yemen, where now the Houthi rebels (probably Iran supported) are taking over the Government. This could induce Egypt to attack Yemen (with the blessing of everyone else) as if the Houthis rebel reach the Bab al Mandeb choke point that would be a life or death threat to Egypt.

Why this is important?

Egypt with the Suez Canal is a strategic passage for the world commerce and oil prices. A spike in issues there would be an economic shock and would send sky rocketing the oil.

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