geopolitics and the market

Posted: August 19, 2014 in Uncategorized

Well, up till now the market practically climbed a wall of worry.

Things could change in a blink of an eye, but until the Federal Reserve supports the market it is hard to see a major downturn.

When the Fed will stop supporting the market?

One clear date is the 4 November. Why such an exact date?

The 4th November there are the US Mid Term Election that practically establish the picture for the next Presidential election when President Obama will not be able to be re elected.

Yes they say that the Fed is independent. As a regulator it is independent, but the persons that compose the regulator are not…so you guess.

Also the 15 September there are the Russian regional elections and November starts the real winter.

President Putin does not want to intervene, but can’t allow Ukraine to completely fall under the US/NATO (red line for him). He probably will want also to see what happens in the Ukrainian early Parliamentary election in September 2014 (date TBA). He just wants Ukraine to remain unstable, not taking it over if possible.

Personally I think he will not have much choice, but invade. This is more because the US/NATO are really pushing in arming Ukraine than anything else.

The two really wild elements are Islamic State, currently in the back foot, and ebola – more serious than people thinks.

Still the risk are always very high and definitely it is not worth it now to go in an index following Exchange traded fund.

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