Markets

Posted: August 1, 2014 in Uncategorized

The accumulation of risks, together with high valuation, is never a positive for the market.

In a day the SP500 erased all July profits and the volatility index is at 16.95 – just under the neutral zone resistance of 17.09.

We just needed an expected event (Argentina default was in the card from sometime) and a bad number from EXXON to start a serious legdown. We were at SP 1931 the 13 June!

Also the great GDP number +4% and close to normality inflation for the US, it is pushing the idea that the first rate up for the FED could be much sooner than anticipated.

This could be just a storm on a teacup, unless Putin uses this one off to inflict some real pain against the US and the Western allies.

The last time hard sanctions (much lesser than this round) have been imposed, for the following month strangely (let me humor you) the Russian shares rallied burning a lot of short sellers (so much that this time no one is doing that) and the Western Financial Markets took a bath (SP March top 1878, April min 1815).

So pay attention. The SP500 SMA 200 is at 1,857

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