A Black Swan, in finance, is a statistical unpredictable event that could effect the market.
The first clear one is Russia. President Putin feels cornered and under pressure from every side. Whatever happened to MH17 you would not want to corner an ex KGB colonel with the 2 world most powerful army. Unless your intention is restarting a Cold War (hint: the US weapon industry would love that, after the US Budget immense tax cuts). Putin could just say I cannot control the rebels but I can send the army in to secure the site (even if the rebel are sponsored by Russia ir does not mean that Russia can control it…the Taliban were mujeddhain trained by the US, Islamic State was initially set up by the Saudis against Syria and then they all went rogue).
The Second possibility is the Islamic State. It is growing constantly ( the media reported that Iraq Army with Iranian support was trying to recapture Tikrit. What they missed is that they got defeated). Saudi Arabia moved 5000 troops towards Iraqi border for protection and put all oil facilities under maximum terrorist alert over the weekend.
investorpolitico 