Middle East: the media calm before the storm

Posted: July 10, 2014 in Uncategorized

The Islamic State issue seemed to disappear. In reality it is just a temporary media reprieve.

What worries me is that there seems to be a coordination of the events that could unite.

Let’s see

Syria- Iraq:

Islamic State (IS) is consolidating positions and more and more Syrian rebels are pledging alliance with IS, increasing the IS power in Syria.
Iraq central Government is accusing Kurdish forces to give harbour to IS (a sort of non-conflict agreement).
There is sporadic fighting episodes between IS, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Jordan forces, unreported by the normal media.
Jordan is particularly interesting as it as defence agreements with Israel and the US.

Israel is in a full on rampage against Hamas/Fatah and increased its presence along the Lebanese border. Hezbollah has not yet retaliated (as it as enough issues with IS, probably), but prevention is better than cure – in Israel mind. The main real motivation is to double: take care of the rockets smuggled in Gaza (with the help of Iran) and avoid a Fatah/ Hamas normalization.

Further afar, in Yemen some rebels (Shia, so not IS) took over a northern city, just 70km from the capital.

In Pakistan the Government is fighting back after the Karachi airport attack.

Baharain sent back the US Assistant Secretary of State – clearly a Saudi message about their unhappiness of the new USA/Iran friendship.

As you see there is enough fuel to create issues. Also the recent withdrawals of the oil price look like more a consolidation from oversold than a retreat. Oil is in a triangular pattern – pointing more to a breakout and gold is consolidating just under the main 1,330 resistance (notwithstanding the accommodative words of the FED)

Oil Monthly 

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