ISIS in Iraq and the markets

Posted: June 23, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: , ,

Well, the something is wrong is clearly ISIS in Iraq and the oil prices.

Notwithstanding talks of the Iraq government fight back the situation on the field is quite murky.

ISIS is not just ISIS “terrorist organisation”. It is also allied with numerous Sunni’s tribes and Sunni ex Army units as the fight is not ISIS vs Iraq, but Sunnis vs Shiites. 

– Isis control most of the North -West (aside the Kurdish North)

They actually dismantlement the borders with Syria and Jordan, allowing reinforcement to pour in. There are fonts that their forces in Syria have substantially decreased.

The Kurds (Sunni) are both courted by ISIS (and Saudi) not to get involved and by Iraq’ Maliki (logics would tend to favour ISIS and Saudis which are Sunni).

Syrian aviation is bombing positions of ISIS in Iraq to show Iran that they are doing their part (but now ISIS got hold of American land to air weaponry).

It is pretty clear that ISIS want to mount an attack to Baghdad from the West side.

As per Iraq, with the help of Iran, it is amassing a 50,000 army north of Baghdad for a counter-offensive – that could be successful or not. But it could be as the Iranian backing is very powerful.

– Saudis have warned Iran against interfering with Iraq

– The so called potential alliance Iran-US, seems not happening.

naturally all this influence oil Brent now is at $115 (it  was 100-108 before this) and, if it breaks $120, the two major resistances are $127 and the terrible $150. The target $127 seems pretty achievable.

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