Well Iraq is in a mess again….and really it was in the card.
Why it happened is because, after the US left, the government fell under the Iranian influence – who are Shias.
And the north of Iraq is Sunni….and Shias forces are pretty much considered invaders.
ISIS just took advantage of this situation.
So where we are at now? Practically a balkanization of Iraq.
ISIS achieved its own target: raise awareness, get cash (from Mosul’s Central Bank coffers), newish weapon and decrease Iranian presence in Syria.
Iran is introducing some proxy forces to help Iraq at least to keep Baghdad and make it look like winners. Iran is very worried as it needs to call back some forces from Syria (ISIS idea from the start) to stabilize its satellite state Iraq.
The Kurdish separatist are one of the major winners, here. Unknown to the media at large, the Kurdish Peshmarga forces already cut out a part of Iraq for themselves (rightly so as it was theirs) and now they are entrenching themselves as a real force and state to be reckoned with.
The state that has the biggest stake here, apart Iran, it is actually China – as China is the biggest customer of Iraqi’s oil as China Petroleum scooped up almost all oil contract (they should send boot on the ground. It is with sadness that all the American soldiers died for a Iranian/Chinese advantage).
On that point I would agree with the first words of Obama…they should sort out their own mess (or better Irana and China).
Graphically oil could hit 116 a barrel.
investorpolitico 