Gold

Posted: May 22, 2014 in Uncategorized
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Gold tried to breakthrough spurred by Ukraine by failed and now it looks like consolidating around USD 1,280/1,325.

It is very difficult, but it looks like prepping for moving higher (USD1,400/1,480). But it needs a catalyst that could be

– New Indian Government stopping the restrictions on gold purchases (it looks like they will do, so to sop the gold smuggling

– A geopololitical risk like Ukraine being invaded (I do not think so – Putin just need to destabilise it.

– Deflation in Europe

-Real interest rate spike in the US (hard to tell, but food inflation in the US is high and skilled job unemployment is under the long range term…these two factors are currently hidden from the macro data…but if they come out in the media they could wreak havoc)

– A stock related risk event, that we are still missing

– (remote) the financial details of the Russia-China deal that could agree that the settlement will be in Yuan Rouble rather than US Dollar (it would be a crucial decision, but I do  not think that people will realize the systemic shift that such an event could provoke. Practically a serious dent in the US Dollar as reserve currency)

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