Well I did some theoretical studies.
Here we have two powerful forces.
– Negative: geopolitical events and the traditional “sell in May and go away”
-Positive: Federal Reserve intervention (since the banks do not lend, the FED is trying to create a positive bias in the market in order to turn the consumer confidence) and political meddling (mid year there are the all important US Mid Term election…who wins that round is the clear favourite for the next “after Obama” election.
As a Calendar go, statistically) the most scary period is 25 May till the 7 July with a crucial period 6 June – 1 July.
So in this period pays to be conservative. I am not saying that something will happen – I just say it is not worth the risk.
investorpolitico 