China GDP: the Good the Bad and the Ugly

Posted: April 16, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

The Good:

GDP decreased to 7.4% better than the forecast 7.3% – but still below the original growth forecast of 7.7

The Bad:

The sequential GDP Q1 is 1.4% – so the sequential GDP should be a meager 5.7% if you can do a simple sum  (which, most probably, is the reality).

Delving in the numbers

Retail sales better than forecast (still down)

Other sectors (Industrial Output, Real Estate, Fixed Asset) are down

The ugly:

In usual fashion China (if you believe) collected and analysed GDP data from all the country in just 15 days. Often not even companies can get their balance sheet ready in 15 days.

Between now and end of June there are USD32 billion of mainly shadow banking products due for renewal in the midst of a credit contraction (-19%)


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