Ukraine: a Russian Perspective

Posted: April 15, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

We are all hearing the Western Media of the evil Russia…let’s see what is the other side of the coin.

Funny enough it looks like we (Eg Western countries) are the aggressor. It is actually clearly a payback from the Syrian US debacle.

The deposed PM Yanukovic (pro Russian) was democratically elected in 2010 with 48% of the votes.

It was ousted in a pro UE revolution, clearly sponsored by the US (there is also an intercepted communication between the the Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and US Ambassador to Ukraine Pyatt that confirm that.

Probably they did not think of this kind of Russian answer, but Putin, since he came in charge, has showed more and more that he can outsmart the Western leader with real effectiveness (the “turning” of the Orange Revolutions, Georgia, Syria) from a position of relative weakness (well if the 007 movies were real, if you know history, 007 would be Russian)

Crimea has been for centuries the Russian military access to the Mediterranean and one of the most looked for Russian beach place to be (a bit like Brighton for London). It has over 60% of the population as ethnic Russian.

It is one of the main gas pipeline artery to the West (which account for 60% of Russian revenue).

It is not something that Putin (or, to tell you the truth no one in his situation) can let go. It is much more a RED LINE that a gas attack red line in Syria. It is more like if someone would take over Alaska (until 1950s Ukraine was an USSR region).

So it is a RED LINE and so Crimea was taken over.

Now the scope of Russia is to create enough tension in East Ukraine to undermine the 7 May elections.  The best outcome for Russia is a federalisation of Ukraine with the eastern part going under the Russian umbrella – Putin knows that, under the harsh International Monetary Fund bail out condition (and Russian pressure) soon or later also West Ukraine  will fold.

But now there is the ultimatum against the pro-Russian rebel. Ukraine let expire yesterday’s ultimatum without consequences. They know that if they attack, the Russian army will attack.

Russia would prefer not to attack as time and economic sanction will sway the battle on their side anyway. But if push come to shove, they will conquer East Ukraine as limited operation (Putin knows that the Red Army is not yet at USSR levels – so any major operation (say to Moldova) is too costly.

Now the ball is in the Ukrainian side!

Meanwhile he will keep on seeding insecurity in all the ex USSR countries.

So Putin is simply responding to the Western encirclement with the only message that the US listen. 

Stockmarket wise, a funny graph…sanction what hit who? Well done Tovarish Putin!

 

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