China: a chilling interview – Russia out of sight out of mind

Posted: April 4, 2014 in Uncategorized
Tags: ,

A Chinese Retired General had an interview about China-Japan relationships. Apart the usual China is stronger than Japan kind of marketing spin, what chilled me is that he clearly stated that China does not believe that the US would defend Japan in case of war. And you cannot speak about something like that in China without the authorities consensus.

The issue is that all the hypothesis of the Western strategies of low probability of war between China and Japan hinges on the fact that China is scared by a US intervention. If they really think US would not intervene the chances of an armed conflict escalates considerably. And China taking a hint from Syria, Crimea could really think that.

But I would not be so sure as Japan is a critical friend of the US and has a “protection pact”, that, if foregone, would cripple even NATO. The US just moved considerable reinforcement to their Okinawa (Japan) base.

On the Russian side, all is calm in the media. In reality the massive troop build up near Ukraine is still there and now there are exercises also near Estonia and Latvia – while US/NATO  are redeploying fighter jets in Estonia and Poland, US military contingent has been redeployed also in Romania and quite a few US warship entered the Black Sea apparently in breach of a Montreal Agreement (which limits the tonnage and number of ships allowed, so the Russian formal protest says)

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