Stock market: back to reality

Posted: February 4, 2014 in Uncategorized

Well, now most commentator are saying “don’t worry, this is another buy the dip occasion” – this is an healthy correction.

What if it is not?

In the next few days the indexes will probably move higher….but it will most probably a swan song, helped by an oversold condition (which now the software driven algorithm will buy into), helped by a secretive move by the FED.

But the emerging market are in a rout. Almost all American company have at least 40% of the revenue from the Emerging market – revenue that will be hit if not by the EM consumer spending, by the currency crash.

I still do not think that this is a crisis to be scared of (in the 2008 sense of scary), but it is not a a simple blip in the radar …more of a 10/15% correction (S&P500 1,600 is my re-assess value – first point of control area is 1,700)

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