So after the two days of sell off, what are the risks for 2014?
– The US FED could loose control of the US Bond Market during tapering – sending 10 year T Bond over 4.5% that would initiate a sharp slowdown. Probability 40%
– Europe is looking better, but such an high unemployment could cause civil unrest or worse in some countries. Probability 30%
– As we have seen Emerging Market could melt in an Asian Crisis, Probability 60%
-The realignment of US/Iran could provoke positive and negative reactions: oil could be heading lower – this would be positive for the market, but also start a crisis in oil dependant economy (Russia, Venezuela). The proxy war Saudi/Iran could extend from Syria to Lebanon, Iraq (it already has happened…but the media are not focussing on it): Probability 100%…the effect to be seen is very much on the media hands.
– North Korea is always a black hole (see post)
-US international lack of involvement could provoke regional war or at least more non-negotiable position (eg between China/Japan – but also within NATO and MiddleEast (this is a funny one …it is the dream of the anti American public sentiment….but be careful what you wish for)
-China reforms – probability of catastrophic risk 30%
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