What a run it as been…two years of good performance and market at the peak!
In 2014 we will need to be extra careful as all the good news have been priced in. I still think that this could be another good year – but with lower – single digit – returns. And more volatile.
January is actually shaping up, as predicted, a consolidation month. But there are sign that we will get a breakthrough and then a top in March. Probably after the US will raise again the Debt Ceiling (due date, this time, 7 February)
In Australia this single digit return will hide a rotation between financials, last year winners, and miners, last year losers.
With volatility will re emerge Gold. Not as a stellar performer (year end USD1,400/1,450), but too many have a negative view.
The best markets will be the UK which economy is having an impressive performance and secondary some part of Europe. As Emerging market I am pretty positive on China and Japan. I think in both countries the reforms will at least look like working for this year.
Around the globe, interesting investment could be found in Mexico (US proximity), Eastern Europe (it has become Europe factory), India (recovering from a disastrous 2013) and part of Africa – but unfortunately we do not have investment specifically targeting that area in Australia.
An interesting is also internet/robotic and cure for serious diseases (EG cancer) as we are clearly in a new technology breakthrough take off phase.
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