The return of the political risk

Posted: September 29, 2013 in Uncategorized

Well, September there was a lot of political risk (Syria, US Fed Tapering etc) and we passed through it unscathed!

Second time lucky? Maybe not.

The US Government Shutdown (by Wednesday! probably solved) and the US Debt Ceiling debate (17 October, but then the real date is somewhat later) combined with a weakened President due to the Syrian debacle – make a scary combination.

Plus we have the Italian Government in crisis as Berlusconi’ s party chose the hard line (walk out if Berlusconi is expelled) that can rekindle the European crisis (already the Italian bond are up 8%).

Plus there are some few brewing things: in Greece the head of the Golden Dawn neo-nazi party has been arrested. Even, if I do not like them I always get a bit eerie when the head of party that anyway had 14% vote of the population in a Democratic Republic get so easily arrested. And the Government refuses snap election for fear of backlash (the polls suggests otherwise – a plunge from 14% to 6.7%…but polls are polls…I never been interviewed for a poll all my life nor met anyone who had been).

On the share market the SP500 has lost its first support at 1698 and it is also losing its 1692…..is in sight 1,655 – it could re touch the 1,627 pretty shortly

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