The Geopolitical series: The Future AD 2023

Posted: September 26, 2013 in Uncategorized

At the start of the year I did a forecast in my previous blog (ferromacroforecasts.blogspot.com) on how the world will be shaped in the medium distant future.

Naturally the forecast will not be 100% correct, but a vision can help make the correct investment decisions.

I am retouching this issue as the decision of President Obama could have the collateral effect to bring forward this scenario much faster.

The point were

1. The US will be more and more self-centered. The current will of the population, the shale and robotic revolution makes the US strategically independent by the world. It will help create mini powers that checkmate each other (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel/ Japan/China) –  but it will not be anymore the world policemen. Or at least it will try not to.

2. In the Middle East the rivalry between Saudis and Iranians will grow. Turkey will try to be the third superpower of the Middle East. Israel is a big incognito. Alone against a Muslim world, it will have to make hard choices. Pre-emptively attack the enemy or looking for another main advocate (it did happen before – Stalinist USSR was an Israel patron 1944-1948 and  France was the main Israel supporter till 1962). My theory is that Russia will become the new patron.

3 Europe, having survived the Economic crisis – it will not survive the social consequences of the crisis. Already now we can see the divisions. The PIIGS population hate Germany. Germany is tending towards Russia (Energy Supply and northern countries), France is instead opting for a Mediterranean focus (it has been the main advocate for intervention in Libya, Mali and it was ready for Syria).

4 Russia, although in a weakened state, will try to be a new USSR. It will be a bluff, but there will be no one to call the bluff.

5. Japan will rise and be the containment line of China

6. China will remain quite strong, but, after a pretty serious crisis (long story, but the sign are all there corruption, fake data, one child policy consequences will catch up with them) it will be more inwardly focused and not challenge the US

7 All the ASEAN nations (Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia etc) will grow and will become militarily aggressive looking for more resources

8 In South America, Brazil will become the power nation and try to get more international recognition.

9 In Africa there will be part of it that could become the next growth zone of the world, unless they fall to Islamic terrorist

But the real power will reside in the international corporation as Phil K. Dick (author, between many others, of the book that create the famous movie Sci Fi predicted long time before me).

I wish I had more time to explain and reason. The main consequences of this vision as that there will also be more regional wars as the “mini” regional superpowers  will try to carve their share of wealth.

Nobody will directly challenge the US. As Japanese Admiral Yamamoto (the admiral that attacked and destroyed Pearl harbor) knew very well – you do not challenge seriously the US and survive for more than 6 month.

 

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