Syria: consequences

Posted: September 17, 2013 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , ,

The political consequences of President Obama debacle are great and not to be underestimated.

I think there are two issues.

One internal. Now President Obama looks weak and the first sacrifice he had to concede has been Summers (his candidate of choice fro the US FED Chair position). We will see how will go the looming Debt Ceiling battle.

One External. All the countries that depended on the strength of the US to cling to their independence (Poland, Baltic countries, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Georgia) or Russian energy dependent (Turkey, Chzech  Republic) will be swayed towards Russia.

Even Germany, already leaning towards Russia for energy, will be swayed.

The Middle East US allies (Israel and Saudi plus Turkey) are now fully alarmed that President Obama will also give in to Iran (there have been already opening letters between Obama and the new president of Iran).

I almost sound as a warmonger, but really President Obama in a single move set back the US geopolitical power as much as President Carter did in its whole mandate.

Syria: the deadlines are very strict and a missing step could start a limited punitive strike now that President Obama is trying to save face.

The 21 September, President Assad has to deliver the full list of chemical weapons (how to verify it?).

By November President Assad has to grant full access to the inspectors ( by the way the UN estimates require  2000 inspectors and a protective force given by Assad (if you trust him and fully targeted by the rebels, specially the Al Qaeda backed ones)  or provided by the UN of up to 75,000 soldiers (mmmhh…no boots on the ground?) in the midst of a civil war.

And the task has to be completed by mid 2014 (I remind you that there are estimated 1,000 tons of chemical weapon and the best clean up machine cleans approx 25 ton a day 

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