Fog of War and markets: a bluff within a bluff within a bluff

Posted: September 10, 2013 in Uncategorized
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It feels a bit like the movie “Inception”.

The first bluff was Obama’s Red Line on gas attack (by the way everyone forgot that Saddam, with Reagan approval, gassed 1,000s of Kurds and Iranians in the ’80s…but that was a cold war).

The second bluff is Putin saying that the UN could secure 50 sites with over a 1000 tons of gas in the midst of a civil war.

The third bluff is Assad agreeing in the destruction of gas which he knows nobody can do thoroughly (well one point….nobody knows 100% where all the stockpiles are)  

The fourth bluff is the discussion in the UN that they cannot even agree on the consequences of Syria not respecting the destruction of gas (imagine when they will have to discuss which troop to send to do the job, who pays the bill etc)

The fifth bluff is the market, now it will look like heading into a new rally (it was hard to see a crash from 1,630 – some technical would not have permitted it) going towards the top SPX 1,710.

In case anyone forgot the 18th September there is still the Fed meeting on tapering.

No one can predict the market…I just say that I feel like being on the Titanic. You could avoid all icebergs…or not.

PS and the poor Syrians?….well they keep on dying. It has never been about them. It is US and Russia litigiousness (Russia is still upset about Serbia/Kosovo and Ukraine), it is between Saudi and Iranian Middle Eastern supremacy and – well you should have guessed it – a project of an oil pipeline Iran/Iraq/Syria.

As I say in this blog often…shadows of grey


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