Syria: Obama’s Bluff

Posted: September 2, 2013 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , ,

People is starting wondering what is happening.

The issue is that when Obama laid the RED LINE (August 2011) he thought that no-one was going to cross it.

The facts have now disproved him and now he has to face the consequences: punish Syria in a not really wanted confrontation or let the red line be crossed and be considered a “paper tiger”.

Unless he attacks all the red lines with various countries (Iran, North Korea, but also China and Russia) will be rendered invalid and the US will not be seen as a credible superpower with consequences on the entire US foreign strategy for the year to come.

The only potential other solution is a coup d’etat that takes out Assad. The issue with this solution is that only Iran or Russia could try to orchestrate such an event…and they will ask for great compensation for the favor. Probably too great.

So Obama is opting for the best option of asking the Congress for approval – so taking time to form a “coalition of the unwilling”.

Who could have called Obama’s bluff?

There are two parties who definitely could have achieved that:

a rogue part of Assad’s army (like his brother)

a Saudi sponsored faction (rebels or even Saudi’ General Intelligence Presidency’.

I personally lean towards the first.

But all the Middle East is on a tension alert…some news that have been missed by the media:

– Egypt: A Panama’s ship as been attacked in the Suez Canal (insurgent defeated)

-Egypt: A bomb as been found and rendered useless in Alexandria main train station

-Israel: a bomb as been found and rendered useless in Jerusalem

Update:

One of the reason of the delay of the attack has to do more with Realpolitik than anything else. The US need to make a show of force with a limited strike that does NOT topple Assad. Why? The two main rebel forces (there are close to 1,000 rebel groups operating in Syria) are clearly Al-Qaeda supported group…so their victory against Assad would be even more dangerous than Assad itself

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