1. HAPPY Under pressure the Syrian Government buckles. The Alawites stage a coup against Assad with the help of Russia. This would be the preferred outcome of US, Saudi, Russia. This would spur a rally in the market – Oil USD 95 Chances 15%
2. SLIGHTLY WORRIED A limited strike against Syria with no major consequences – this would practically take the edge from the Syrian Army (taking down the air superiority). The repercussion will be mainly felt in Lebanon with the Hezbollah under pressure. This would produce a 2-5% fall in the market – Oil US D 115 Chances 45%
3 WORRIED A limited strike against Syria with a limited response from Syria and Hezbollah. The biggest threat from Syria are two. The Syrian Electronic Army (already attacked New York Times, Twitter and the water infrastructure of Haifa (Israel)- attack repelled). This would produce a 5-10% in the market – Oil US D 130 Chances 30%
4 ABOVE ALL FEARS -A limited strike against Syria and full retaliation against Israel and Turkey and US/EU Electronic Infrastructure . As Turkey is a NATO member NATO will have to be involved. Israel will retaliate against Iran and Iran would probably attack also Saudi Arabia (in reality Syria is a proxy war Iran/Saudi) . Critical EU/US infrastructure will be targeted and the US would retaliate with EM Pulse bomb (similar to the one seen in Sci Fi movie such as Transformers). This would be a full blown recession and a second Arab spring . OIL US D 150-200 Chances 10%
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